Looptron

Brexit roasting on a tyre fire...
...Rees-Mogg nibbling at your woes...

Brexit roasting on a tyre fire...
...Rees-Mogg nibbling at your woes...

As of this morning (currently: Brexit vote cancelled, no Tory leadership confidence vote yet to happen, Labour picking their moment to launch a confidence vote in the Government) I think we can probably upgrade the status of UK politics to “burning pile of faeces”.

No matter what you do you're going to lose half the electorate...

As far as I can make out the potential scenarios are:

  • Theresa May’s deal, which is dependent on Theresa May still being Prime Minister and it getting through Parliament. Which she or it won’t. So there’s no way forward there.
  • A Brexiteer runs the Tory party (Rees-Mogg, Johnson) attempts to pull off a Hard/No Deal Brexit and Parliament killing it off if they get an opportunity (the enthusiasm for No Deal in Parliament is very low). No way forward. 
  • Even if they do run down the Article 50 clock, our attempts to attain a quickie WTO tariff arrangement have been shot down by the Russians We can probably expect similar interference going forward. 
  • A Remainer/May ally could end up running the Tory party, in which case the deal and arithmetic from the first option probably still applies.
  • A confidence vote in the Government is only a slight possibility. No way forward there - the grasp on power is slender but it is there. 
  • On the offchance a confidence vote goes against the Government a general election would very likely result in a hung Parliament and no way forward. The result here is that we’re simply deferring the other scenarios for a bit, or stumbling into a No Deal by default in the power vacuum.

With things as they stand we’re not going to get resolution on this whole brexit thing. It will drag on too - there is virtually no political capital to be gained anywhere. No matter what you do you’re going to lose half the electorate. This leaves many politicians equivocating, playing both sides.

(Hello Jeremy, get a grip mate.)

So, while MPs continue their rabbit-in-the-headlights shtick, we do now need a further public referendum. Not “remain or leave” but to direct whoever is in power how to proceed based on the options we have available after two and a half years of mucking about...

  1. Leave in March, no deal. (Only rabid Brexiteers want this. No one else agrees this is a good thing.)
  2. Leave in March, Theresa’s deal (if she’s still about) with transition period, backstop et al. (EU already agreed)
  3. Leave, but try and maintain access to the Single Market/Customs Union. ("Norway+", require other ECTA members to agree)
  4. Extend Article 50 for X years, go back to the table (requires EU to agree).
  5. Withdraw Article 50 (unilateral UK decision), go to the pub.

Options to be marked in order of preference and unlike the previous referendum it should be binding, rather than advisory - whoever is in power must implement it or stand aside. That way, the only way an MP can gain political capital is by actually doing as they were asked. That should focus some minds. No more "this isn't the brexit people voted for" speeches because (and this is important) there are multiple candidate brexits available and we're going to vote for one of them.

And if they don’t agree to this? GENERAL STRIKE!

Because why not.

In the meantime, my teeth hurt. I think I’ve started grinding them in my sleep and I think BrexitstressTM is the cause. I'm really only typing this to get it out of my brain. I may now turn off the news until April. Someone text me if I need to vote on something.

Also, check you've done this: https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

--

Listening to "Altar" by Fred Thomas 

Posted Wednesday, December 12, 2018.


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No matter what you do you're going to lose half the electorate...

Looptron is a sort of electronic music type thing that happens sometimes.

Subscribe to mailing list
Get musiciTunes|Amazon|Spotify
F.S.o.D.

Previously

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